Polarizing and over-betting the turn

 

In the last article we looked at how PokerSnowie can help us decide when to bet small and when to bet big. In this one we will dig a bit deeper and look at over-bets.

 

Over-betting isn’t a new strategy in No Limit Hold’em. Prahlad Friedman, arguably the first online poker star, who crushed the high stakes cash games ten years ago, was well known to implement this strategy. And the rise of Viktor Blum aka Isildur made the move popular. 

Nowadays it is rather common to see regulars over-betting the river. But over-bets on previous streets are only seen in very high stakes cash games and heads up matches. This article will go through a deep hand analysis with PokerSnowie to understand when it is correct to over-bet.

 

We have the following situation: 

 

Hero is under the gun with 6 players around the table. The blinds are $1 and $2, and the effective stack is 100BB.

Hero opens to $7 with JdTd. His range includes {AA-66,AK-AT,KQ-KJ,A9s-A3s,KTs-K9s,QJs-Q9s,JT-J9s, T9s}.

Villain defends with a call from the big blind.

Flop comes rainbow Kc 9d 4h; the pot is now $15

 

The texture is rather dry and good for the under the gun range. Cbetting with all the opening range used to be a no brainer. It is certainly profitable but far from optimal. PokerSnowie prefers to polarize its betting range and to check back 30% of the time.